Know More. Risk Better.

Chemicals: Capacity, Credit Stress & Middle East

In this episode of the Know More. Risk Better. podcast, host Zachary Griffiths speaks with Andrew Brady, Head of US Basic Industries, Andy Belton, Head of European Basic Industries, and Peter Agra, Managing Editor for Secondary Markets at LevFin Insights, about the embattled chemicals sector navigating multiple headwinds in 2026. They dive deep into the Middle East conflict's impact, analyzing how oil price spikes and supply disruptions are creating feedstock cost mismatches and the credit implications for US versus European producers. The conversation explores the structural challenges facing European chemicals, with persistent oversupply requiring 800,000 tons of PVC capacity closures and companies like INEOS Group and Quattro trading at distressed levels amid 2027 maturity concerns. They also discuss the Bayer-Monsanto litigation saga, examining the Supreme Court case, proposed settlement structure, and Trump administration's glyphosate defense exemption reshaping risk premiums. The episode concludes with insights on investor rotation from software into cyclical chemicals exposure, including the limited impact of Germany's $500 billion infrastructure package and secondary market dynamics. Listen now to gain expert perspectives on chemicals sector credit views and strategic positioning opportunities amid unprecedented volatility.

Grounded & Rerouted: Middle East Impact on European Aviation

In this episode of the Know More. Risk Better. podcast, host Logan Miller speaks with Mihir Trivedi, Senior Analyst for European Transportation, about the fast-moving Middle East conflict and its implications for global aviation and European credit. They explain why Middle Eastern airspace is a critical corridor linking Europe and North America to Asia, and how widespread airspace closures and airport disruptions have triggered mass cancellations, longer reroutings, and higher operating costs that are ultimately passed through to consumers. The discussion covers near-term demand effects, including weaker passenger numbers, deferred business travel, and reduced load factors, alongside medium-term implications such as higher airfares, capacity being redirected to other routes like the transatlantic market, and a potential shift toward more direct ultra long-haul flights. They also assess financial pressure points for airlines, focusing on jet fuel as the largest cost line, the importance of hedging into 2026, and how fleet efficiency can create winners and losers as disruptions extend. The episode concludes with relative value views across airports and airlines, highlighting Heathrow’s constraints and exposure versus more defensive alternatives, and reiterating a preference for higher-quality balance sheets in the airline space.

U.S. Consumer Check: Credit Quality Meets Uncertainty

In this episode of the Know More. Risk Better. podcast, host Winnie Cisar, Global Head of Strategy at CreditSights, speaks with Peter Simon, Head of U.S. Banks, and Iris Shi, Senior Banks Analyst, about the state of the US consumer in 2026. They tackle the disconnect between negative consumer sentiment headlines and the more constructive narrative from bank earnings. The discussion explores key data points supporting consumer health, including low unemployment in the mid-4% range, elevated consumer balance sheets up 30-40% since pre-COVID, and stable payment rates. They analyze credit quality trends, examining how improved lending vintages from 2023 onwards are driving stabilization through early 2026. The conversation delves into spending dynamics, revealing mid-single-digit purchase volume growth and bifurcation across income tiers, with American Express showing strength in travel and luxury while Synchrony sees weakness in furniture and home improvement. They dissect the student loan situation, analyzing the sharp rise to 9.6% delinquency in December 2025, Trump administration reforms under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, and why contagion risk to other consumer lending categories remains limited. The episode concludes with underappreciated risks, including generational dynamics affecting Gen Z borrowers and regulatory proposals like the 10% credit card interest rate cap. Listen now to gain expert perspectives on consumer credit positioning opportunities for 2026.

Iran at the Fault Line: Geopolitics, Markets & EM Risks

In this episode of the Know More. Risk Better. podcast, host Zachary Griffiths speaks with Regis Chatellier, Head of Emerging Market Sovereign Strategy at CreditSights, and Lauren Gilbert, Senior Political Science Analyst at GeoQuant, about the escalating situation in Iran and its global market implications. They analyze the aftermath of January 2026 protests, examining GeoQuant's proprietary political risk models showing elevated risk comparable to 2019-2020 levels. The conversation explores the tail risk of a Strait of Hormuz blockade and its potential impact on oil prices, with countries like Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar facing significant export disruptions. They discuss the Trump administration's unpredictability following the Venezuela intervention, ongoing US-Iran nuclear talks, and military asset positioning in the region. The episode examines Iran's critical role supplying oil and drones to Russia and China, while sovereign spreads trade at their tightest levels since 2007 despite geopolitical risks. They conclude with investment recommendations, highlighting opportunities in Latin America, Morocco, and Dominican Republic, while expressing caution on Turkey and Asia. Listen now to gain expert perspectives on emerging market credit positioning amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty in 2026.

From Taipei to Hong Kong: Credit Conversations That Matter

In this episode of the Know More. Risk Better. podcast, the discussion explores how Asian investors are navigating global credit markets amid volatile US rates, shifting macro expectations, and rapid AI-driven investment. Zachary Griffiths and Zerlina Zhang unpack key takeaways from Zerlina’s recent roadshow across Greater China and Taiwan, covering investor sentiment on Fed policy and US growth, yield-seeking behavior, private credit contagion risks, AI capex trends, Japan’s fiscal outlook and JGB volatility, and the growing appeal of Asia local currency bonds, particularly Australian dollar debt. Gain timely, on-the-ground insights to help investors better assess cross-market risks and identify opportunities in an increasingly uncertain global environment. 

Real Estate Rundown: Tracking Europe's Recovery

In this episode of the Know More. Risk Better. podcast, host Logan Miller speaks with Mary Pollock, Head of Real Estate, about the European real estate sector's outlook for 2026. They explore the current stage of the recovery cycle, noting that commercial real estate valuations reached their trough in mid-2024 and are now in early recovery phase, though slower than post-GFC. The conversation examines subsector dynamics, with offices remaining the most challenged while residential and logistics show strength. Mary discusses the impact of rising government bond yields—with 10-year bunds up nearly 80 basis points to 2.85%—and how this affects fundraising and valuations despite improved rate stability. They analyze the critical shift in capital allocation, as companies move from defense mode to investment and shareholder returns, including share buybacks at Vonovia, Bouwinvest, and Aroundtown. The discussion covers primary market strength, with riskier crossover names and hybrids seeing strong reception and minimal new issue concession. Mary outlines her cautious outlook on credit metrics, expecting flat-to-higher LTVs and weaker interest coverage ratios due to refinancing legacy low-cost debt. The episode concludes with positioning recommendations, favoring the 5-7 year maturity bucket and specific outperforms including Heimstad Boesdad, VGP, and Blackstone Property Partners Europe, while cautioning on Austria. Listen now to gain expert perspectives on European real estate credit strategy for 2026.

Shifting Gears: Auto Sector's 2026 Roadmap

In this episode of the Know More. Risk Better. podcast, host Winnie Cisar, Global Head of Strategy at CreditSights, speaks with Todd Duvick, Head of Autos, and Jim Williamson, Senior Autos Analyst covering Europe, about the global automotive sector outlook for 2026. They explore vehicle sales forecasts, with both US and Europe expecting flat to slightly higher volumes around 16 million units, constrained by affordability despite lower interest rates and new tax deductions. The conversation examines the deregulation wave, including Europe's pullback from the 2035 EV-only deadline to a 90% emissions reduction target and the US removal of consumer EV tax credits, saving GM $750 million annually. They analyze Chinese competition dynamics, with BYD's potential US manufacturing and government interventions to stabilize pricing. The discussion covers margin trajectories, with single-digit operating margins becoming the new normal, offset by declining capex as the investment super cycle ends. They also address credit rating outlooks, highlighting Ford's fallen angel risk, Honda's margin challenges, and Renault as a rising star candidate. The episode concludes with investment recommendations: VW senior bonds for Europe and Ford for tactical opportunities. Listen now for expert insights on automotive credit positioning.

Media M&A Mania: The Future of WBD, Broadcast TV & More

In this episode of the Know More. Risk Better. podcast, host Zachary Griffiths speaks with Hunter Martin, Head of Media and Cable, and Davis Hebert, Co-Head of High Yield Research and TMT, about the evolving media landscape and M&A activity in 2026. They dive deep into the Warner Brothers Discovery saga, analyzing Netflix's $83 billion bid versus Paramount's competing all-cash offer and the credit implications for bondholders. The conversation explores the broader consolidation wave in cable networks, with companies like Versant trading at four times EBITDA and the potential for private equity involvement. They also discuss the sports landscape, examining cord cutting trends, YouTube TV's new skinny bundles, and how NFL and NBA rights are reshaping the pay TV ecosystem. The episode concludes with insights on broadcast TV deregulation, including the Nexstar-Tegna merger and its impact on the high yield market. Listen now to gain expert perspectives on media sector credit views and strategic positioning opportunities for 2026.